T minus 31 Days

Officially one month from the eve of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses and with only two televised debates remaining (three debates if you count the radio-only debate on NPR in Des Moines, Dec. 4) before the first-in-the-nation primary, polls are still changing and neither of the two likelies — Clinton or Obama — has anything locked up.

In the latest Iowa poll of 500 likely caucus-goers, conducted by the Des Moines Register over November 25-28, Barack Obama has surpassed Hillary Clinton, 28%-25%. A poll conducted November 26-29 by the American Research Group shows Obama slightly edging past Hillary, 27%-25%. A poll conducted by the same group the second week in November showed Obama at 21% and Hillary at 27%; if Obama can continue with the momentum he has had in the past several weeks and increase his margin, he is bound to coast to an Iowa win.

An interesting, unexpected and somewhat odd piece of advice from Karl Rove, former senior advisor to President Bush and Deputy White House Chief of Staff, to Obama appeared today in the Financial Times of London. At first glance, I thought it might be an parodical letter written by one of the Times’ columnists. However, the article’s byline confirmed he is, in fact, the author.

All loathing of Rove’s politics aside, it is difficult to argue that he is not a political genius. And Rove says that if Barack does not win in Iowa, victory in the other primaries will be much more difficult.

Advice from Rove must be taken with a grain of salt. What is his interest in giving this advice? Many conservative leaders believe (also see here) that if Hillary wins the nomination, the current scandal-plagued Republican party, as well as a faltering (yet admittedly slightly improved) situation in Iraq will, just as it did in the congressional midterm elections of 2006, bring about a Democratic victory.

So, all in all, maybe Rove just wants someone who the Republicans feel is beatable to win the election. Put simply, they are scared of her.

And what do you say to Obama and Edwards’ theories that the Republicans actually want Hillary to win the party’s nomination because they feel she will be easier to beat in the general election? Well, Edwards and Obama obviously just want to beat her in the primaries.

Jordan

P.S. — after I finished writing this post, I read that the Mayor of Des Moines, Iowa’s capital city, has endorsed Obama. Keep an eye out for upcoming Iowa polls; I predict Obama’s momentum to accelerate.